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Prediction on Gas Prices this summer?

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Old 06-08-2022, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted by peloponisios
Energy cost in Greece has risen way before the russian smo in ukraine. Reason being that the European south since around last October buys energy through a stock exchange market kind of thing. A scam in other words.
THis is today, 2.42 euros per litre of basic unleaded. On a main urban street.

this is only the beginning
I thought ours at $2.42 per litre for premium was bad - Euro to CAD puts regular at $3.26 CAD! A tank of premium would cost me around $170 at your rates.
40 years ago there was a fledgling government fuel company that could have refined and supplied fuel to us. This was deemed bad cause private companies are always better. Missed an opportunity to do like Mexico and control rates a bit more - oops. Some here are heading south of the border for cheap gas as well. Not worth it with the amount burned to get that fuel removes the savings.
Old 06-08-2022, 08:02 AM
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The current OPEC reduced production plans which are driving most of this were made in 2020. If the administration is somehow responsible for OPEC, direct your questions to the administration of 2020. A whole bunch of countries have been pressuring OPEC to produce more oil to bring the prices down, but so far no luck. Only Russia is pumping more because it's the one thing they have left.

Old 06-08-2022, 11:30 AM
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I have thought for a while there could be a strategy by the gubment to not encourage domestic production & exploration, bite the bullet in the short term paying for imported oil with the long term goal of having oil available for the foreseeable future while possible alternative energy sources are developed.


Old 06-08-2022, 01:12 PM
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I dunno that oil production needs encouragement. They're making money hand over fist already. If it's not economical to refine in the US even at this point then maybe it's not economical to refine period. Let someone else do it and just buy the product.

As far as domestic exploration, I mean is there anything we haven't drilled already? Alaska, sure, but how do you get oil out of Alaska? We're having enough trouble getting it out of Alberta without losing money on every barrel.
Old 06-08-2022, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by BigCajun
I have thought for a while there could be a strategy by the gubment to not encourage domestic production & exploration, bite the bullet in the short term paying for imported oil with the long term goal of having oil available for the foreseeable future while possible alternative energy sources are developed.

.gov could **** up a wet dream. yes they have a plan none of that plan helps us serfs

Originally Posted by Loki
I dunno that oil production needs encouragement. They're making money hand over fist already. If it's not economical to refine in the US even at this point then maybe it's not economical to refine period. Let someone else do it and just buy the product.

As far as domestic exploration, I mean is there anything we haven't drilled already? Alaska, sure, but how do you get oil out of Alaska? We're having enough trouble getting it out of Alberta without losing money on every barrel.
pipelines are a great way to move oil but since we arent russia we dont get to finish our extension. theres plenty of places to drill but regs, the climate cult wackjobs as already stated .gov makes it dumb to explore or take existing leases that dont produce/have so much red tape
Old 06-08-2022, 02:29 PM
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But even the pipelines only make economic sense if the price of oil is above a certain number. They're massive projects that need to pay off somehow. It's a self perpetuating money dump: to have cheap oil you have to spend money on oil, that ends up losing you money unless you raise the price of oil. Then by the time you've done that, the demand for oil has gone up and you're back where you started.

The only reasonable exit that doesn't bankrupt all of us is to stop needing more of a diminishing resource.
Old 06-09-2022, 06:23 AM
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theres plenty of oil to last 100s of years and during that time we could slowly transition to other things (wind and solar aint gonna get it done) but you cant just wage war on the life line of the modern way of life and expect things to work overnight. our former vice pres has said multiple time even before being installed he would wage said war on fossil fuels
Old 06-09-2022, 09:21 AM
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Yes because while there might in theory be oil for hundreds of years, the easily accessible oil is more or less tapped. Those hundreds of years are oil sands, deep ocean, Antarctica, hostile foreign countries you need to go to war with, etc. It will not be cheap and because we depend on it so much, we will bankrupt ourselves trying to get more of it. There won't be money for anything else, you can see it happening already. Including dealing with climate effects we're already pregnant with, never mind new ones we'll create by not addressing the problem. Ya I know, climate wackjobs and all that, you can save it.

Not overnight for sure, but gotta start somewhere. Oil isn't going to get any cheaper on its own. If $5.20/gallon is a problem, what are you going to do when it's $20?
Old 06-09-2022, 09:28 AM
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The father of a good friend of my wife wrote a book that some here might be interested in. He was part of Ballard Fuel Systems (Hydrogen fuel cells). David Sanborn Scott.
Smelling Land is the title (he also sailed all over the world). Many of my rants about fuel, electric cars, hydrogen fuel and other topics were backed up by his writing. Much smarter fellow than me.

https://www.googleadservices.com/pag...ECAEQCA&adurl=

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Old 06-09-2022, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Loki
Yes because while there might in theory be oil for hundreds of years, the easily accessible oil is more or less tapped. Those hundreds of years are oil sands, deep ocean, Antarctica, hostile foreign countries you need to go to war with, etc. It will not be cheap and because we depend on it so much, we will bankrupt ourselves trying to get more of it. There won't be money for anything else, you can see it happening already. Including dealing with climate effects we're already pregnant with, never mind new ones we'll create by not addressing the problem. Ya I know, climate wackjobs and all that, you can save it.

Not overnight for sure, but gotta start somewhere. Oil isn't going to get any cheaper on its own. If $5.20/gallon is a problem, what are you going to do when it's $20?
start rendering bodies for bio fuel
Old 06-09-2022, 02:40 PM
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Besides the disturbing part of your proposed fuel source there’s the odour issue. I’ve been around for a body recovery from the river and that is NOT a smell I want to encounter again.

That book I suggested is a pretty realistic look at energy future without all the faerie dust that comes from born again environmentalists.

Now back to gas price - Monday fuel up cost $134.50. Hoping to not hit $150 this summer ($3.00 per litre) for a tank. I’m looking back at last year’s posts here with fondness for the low cost that’s was so alarming.
Old 06-09-2022, 03:28 PM
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The price of oil is a political football, period. It has probably *never* reflected true supply and demand forces. It always reflects domestic policy and geopolitics.

Recently, add the idiotic lockdowns, the idiotic resulting stimulus, and idiotic and crazy money printing policies, and we are here.


We get the leaders we deserve...

Vote them out, vote them out.

If you think fair elections are impossible, then get involved. It doesn't have to be this way.
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Old 06-09-2022, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by kevink0000
The price of oil is a political football, period. It has probably *never* reflected true supply and demand forces. It always reflects domestic policy and geopolitics.

Recently, add the idiotic lockdowns, the idiotic resulting stimulus, and idiotic and crazy money printing policies, and we are here.


We get the leaders we deserve...

Vote them out, vote them out.

If you think fair elections are impossible, then get involved. It doesn't have to be this way.
It's not just the US, or any one country though. You can vote people out all day, it won't change the world market price. OPEC holds many of the cards, and as long as that's true, and as long as you need oil, there's not much your elected people can do.

So they're doing the one thing they can, and that's invest in oil-free energy that doesn't depend on a limited set of producers.

This thread is funny, the same people who argue for rights, freedoms and self determination, are for some reason in a rush to be dependent on oil. Is it just because it's familiar and what we've always had?

​​​​​​
Old 06-09-2022, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Loki
It's not just the US, or any one country though. You can vote people out all day, it won't change the world market price. OPEC holds many of the cards, and as long as that's true, and as long as you need oil, there's not much your elected people can do.

So they're doing the one thing they can, and that's invest in oil-free energy that doesn't depend on a limited set of producers.

This thread is funny, the same people who argue for rights, freedoms and self determination, are for some reason in a rush to be dependent on oil. Is it just because it's familiar and what we've always had?

​​​​​​
I tried to post factual reasons for it, but some of the responses are validating my 'parroting' comment.
Confined to echo chambers, what seems to be reason is only confirmation bias.
Old 06-09-2022, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Loki
It's not just the US, or any one country though. You can vote people out all day, it won't change the world market price. OPEC holds many of the cards, and as long as that's true, and as long as you need oil, there's not much your elected people can do.

So they're doing the one thing they can, and that's invest in oil-free energy that doesn't depend on a limited set of producers.

This thread is funny, the same people who argue for rights, freedoms and self determination, are for some reason in a rush to be dependent on oil. Is it just because it's familiar and what we've always had?

​​​​​​
It's not funny to consider this:

Both the US and Canada could be 100% energy independent, and even net exporters, and other nations as well,
if the political will was present. I am not talking about solar and wind.

but, the political will currently swings in the opposite direction, into climate change alarmism, and bad decisions based on outright foolishness, more times than not.

I do not want to be dependent on oil from anywhere, other than the country I live in, and hopefully have a say in how its governed.

You have a much rosier view of current world leadership than do I. These people are unwise, to say the least.

Like I said, it doesn't have to be this way.

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Old 06-09-2022, 05:50 PM
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Everything seems to be about rights and freedoms and other flag waving crap. At least topics lately steer that way. It’s getting boring.

Agreed we need to move off oil to other power supplies. Fossil fuel supply will obviously decrease as we go along. Some need for it will remain (ships?) and should get priority. Bulk movement of humans needs to transition from single vehicles. The electric car is going to hit the limits of power grid so there needs to another option.
Old 06-10-2022, 03:04 AM
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Even toothbrushes are made of oil...
EU covered 40% of its needs with urals' oils.
There's no viable alternative for the foreseeable future here. There's no infrastructure.
We are entering a multi polar world. And I don't think those narcissists at power can handle any of this. It will be painful.
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Old 06-10-2022, 06:08 AM
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We started talking about gas prices, now we're talking about things that will be a slow motion development over many years
Civilization will adapt.
The only other result will be chaos and anarchy.

Considering the truly catastrophic events of the past, our current First World problems are being blown way out of proportion.

From a personal perspective, the early 80s in the Gulf Coast were far worse than anything we're going through now.
That was record inflation compounded with double digit unemployment.
In my area as high as 25% with shuttered businesses and homes everywhere.

We will adapt, we always do.

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Old 06-10-2022, 06:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Loki
It's not just the US, or any one country though. You can vote people out all day, it won't change the world market price. OPEC holds many of the cards, and as long as that's true, and as long as you need oil, there's not much your elected people can do.

So they're doing the one thing they can, and that's invest in oil-free energy that doesn't depend on a limited set of producers.

This thread is funny, the same people who argue for rights, freedoms and self determination, are for some reason in a rush to be dependent on oil. Is it just because it's familiar and what we've always had?

​​​​​​
the us has had the biggest increase in price by a lot if you actually look at the #s. our prices jumped way more than any other country
Old 06-10-2022, 06:55 AM
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I remember when there were days you couldn't even get gas, and if you did, the stations would force you to prepay a limit of like 10 gallons and shut the pump off.

The average price is now over $5.00, but I'm pretty sure you can buy as much as we want to fill up our gas guzzling 8s, SUVs and big trucks.

We had a period in the 70s-80s where we moved away from big road barges, the Japanese kicked our butts with fuel efficient cars, and Detroit made some of the worst cars ever.

50 years later, it's like it never happened.



Old 06-10-2022, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by BigCajun
I remember when there were days you couldn't even get gas, and if you did, the stations would force you to prepay a limit of like 10 gallons and shut the pump off.

The average price is now over $5.00, but I'm pretty sure you can buy as much as we want to fill up our gas guzzling 8s, SUVs and big trucks.

We had a period in the 70s-80s where we moved away from big road barges, the Japanese kicked our butts with fuel efficient cars, and Detroit made some of the worst cars ever.

50 years later, it's like it never happened.


I quoted BC because of that great picture, but this is for everyone posting here.

Results like that were also from policy. A decade and a half of stupid decisions.

Its not flag waving to realize what the real problem is.

I don't trust these people to "lead" us in a transition to new forms of power. Do you all, really?

When you say it was worse before, and it was, do you contemplate how much worse this will get, before it gets "better"?

With the right US policy change announcements, just announcements, the price of oil could drop 10-15% overnight, and ultimately settle 30-40% lower than where it is now. That is before anything is actually implemented. Even with the war continuing.

The reverse is also true, as we have seen. Nothing has been done that would actually help.

I can't wait for wage and price controls to be announced. That will really make things "better".

I'll say it a third time. It doesn't have to be this way.

Peloponisios is right on. They are narcissists, claiming a mantle of superior knowledge and morality, therefore, they are capable of doing great harm.

Look at all the C19 responses worldwide. Were they right? Were they helpful? Did they admit obvious mistakes? Same garbage we are living through now. Do they know how to accurately assess a problem and implement a solution? Do they want to solve the problem? Or do they use a crisis to advance an agenda?

That is your (our) future, unless you change it. Much of what we have been led to believe, on balance, is not remotely true.

Last edited by kevink0000; 06-10-2022 at 09:42 AM.
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Old 06-10-2022, 10:10 AM
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What specific policy would drop the world price of oil though?

Running the US on it's own might be possible but it doesn't sound super economical. It costs Saudi $7ish to pull a gallon of oil, which old US wells are cost 25, new wells in the 30s, fracking is in the 50s and oil sands past 60. If one day the US wanted to only use its own oil and not trade, OPEC could easily drop the world price of oil to below US cost. And since all this is run by the same oil companies they will buy their crude wherever is cheapest... so do you nationalize the oil industry? Put regulations and import tariffs in place? Seems like the wrong direction.

Even depending on a US-only source of oil is still dependence. While wind and solar have limitations, they can be had in your backyard. Decentralize production and you become really independent. Which exactly where current policies are going, no?

Kevin - I see what you mean, but "rosy" isn't right, more that I've been in enough large organizations to see that their capacity to plan and execute some grand strategy is lot more limited than it might appear. You might not agree with the decisions from the outside but most of the time they're pretty dry and pragmatic, and you might choose the same with the same facts.
Old 06-10-2022, 10:35 AM
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kevin the faster people wake up and see that our "betters" hate us serfs and want us to be 100% dependant on them the better

meatwad i would have zero problem turing useless people into something productive. i had to work in a meat processing plant many years ago and yes i puked once i got close to the rendering plant, threw my clothes out at the end of the day and drove home in my boxers. yes its smells nasty but times are tough lol
Old 06-10-2022, 11:06 AM
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During the 80s oil crash I worked as a deckhand for 10 days for nothing.
Personnel manager demanded a $350 kickback for a $35 a day job, took my first 10 days pay.

Ex spent my money as fast as I made it and I got divorced.
So yeah, hard times.
Old 06-10-2022, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by BigCajun
During the 80s oil crash I worked as a deckhand for 10 days for nothing.
Personnel manager demanded a $350 kickback for a $35 a day job, took my first 10 days pay.

Ex spent my money as fast as I made it and I got divorced.
So yeah, hard times.
Yeah, that sucks.


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